Clutch Packs: 158,556 verified pulls, and what they actually show
Clutch Packs records every pack opening on the Polygon blockchain and publishes the results. It is the only platform we track that reports what buyers actually pulled rather than what the platform says its cards are worth.
Across 158,556 verified pulls on 25 packs, the pull-weighted average return is 1.01 times the pack price — effectively break-even, against Courtyard's claimed 95%. But 74% of those pulls returned less than the pack price, and only 10.5% returned double or more. The average is real; it is carried by a thin tail.
Figures read from the Clutch Packs transparency page on 2026-10-21. Unlike every other number on this site, these are observed results rather than published odds.
Why this is different from every other platform
Courtyard publishes an expected value it calculates from its own card valuations. Packz publishes value ranges that have to be turned into an estimate. Arena Club and Crown Rips publish no values at all. All of those are claims about what a pack should return.
Clutch Packs publishes an average drawn from recorded pulls, valued at the market price of the card when it was pulled, with a count of openings verified on Polygon against each figure. That is a materially stronger form of disclosure, because it cannot be quietly adjusted by revaluing inventory, and because anyone can in principle audit the chain. It is the single best disclosure practice we have found in this category, and it is worth saying so plainly.
It is not immune to scrutiny, though, and three things are worth understanding before taking the headline at face value.
1. Most pulls still lose money
A 1.01 times average and a 74% chance of losing money are not in conflict. Weighted across all recorded pulls, 74% came back worth less than the pack price and roughly half of all pulls landed in the bottom band at under half the price. Only 10.5% doubled. If you buy one pack, the most likely single outcome by a wide margin is a card worth a fraction of what you paid; the average describes a buyer who opens thousands.
2. Two packs are carried by one $130,000 card
A single $130,000 Series Hit, a 2000 Bowman Chrome Tom Brady Refractor, appears as the maximum recorded pull on both the Multisport Ascent and Multisport Moonshot packs. On Ascent, spread across 21,127 recorded pulls, that one card contributes $6.15 to the average, which is 6.2% of the $100 pack price. Strip it out and Ascent's stated 1.07 times becomes about 1.00 times. On Moonshot it adds $117.97 across 1,102 pulls.
Those are the two highest-returning packs on the board, and they are the two that happened to produce the jackpot. Every other pack sits close to 1.00 times without one. This is not a criticism of the disclosure, which is what makes the check possible in the first place, but it does mean the top of the table is luck rather than a better pack.
3. The thin samples tell you nothing about the tail
Pull counts range from 69,558 on Multisport Liftoff down to 127 on Football Galaxy. With a roughly 0.4% chance of a 10x-or-better pull, a 127-pull sample is expected to contain fewer than one. Basketball Ascent's 1.13 times on 260 pulls and Soccer Orbit's 0.92 times on 164 pulls are both noise, and treating either as a verdict on the pack would be a mistake. We have flagged every pack below 500 pulls in the table.
Every pack, by observed return
| Pack | Category | Price | Verified pulls | Average pull | Return | Under 1× | 2× or better |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisport Liftoff | Multisport | $25 | 69,558 | $24.92 | 1.00× | 73.4% | 10.5% |
| Multisport Ascent | Multisport | $100 | 21,127 | $106.61 | 1.07× | 74.3% | 10.5% |
| Multisport Orbit | Multisport | $500 | 2,789 | $490.37 | 0.98× | 76.6% | 10.6% |
| Multisport Galaxy | Multisport | $1,000 | 1,943 | $996.09 | 1.00× | 77.7% | 10.5% |
| Multisport Moonshot | Multisport | $2,500 | 1,102 | $2,677.53 | 1.07× | 77.4% | 11.3% |
| Pokémon Liftoff | Pokémon | $25 | 17,008 | $25.71 | 1.03× | 72.7% | 10.5% |
| Pokémon Ignition | Pokémon | $50 | 7,496 | $49.50 | 0.99× | 75.2% | 11.6% |
| Pokémon Ascent | Pokémon | $100 | 4,293 | $97.95 | 0.98× | 76.0% | 9.8% |
| Pokémon Orbit | Pokémon | $500 | 786 | $501.44 | 1.00× | 76.4% | 11.5% |
| One Piece Liftoff | One Piece | $25 | 6,077 | $25.19 | 1.01× | 75.0% | 10.4% |
| One Piece Ignition | One Piece | $50 | 3,248 | $48.84 | 0.98× | 74.4% | 12.4% |
| One Piece Ascent | One Piece | $100 | 1,964 | $101.46 | 1.01× | 74.1% | 11.1% |
| One Piece Orbit | One Piece | $500 | 412 | $504.45 | 1.01× | 74.3% | 12.9% |
| Soccer Liftoff | Soccer | $25 | 5,754 | $25.10 | 1.00× | 74.2% | 11.1% |
| Soccer Ascent | Soccer | $100 | 1,619 | $101.47 | 1.01× | 73.3% | 11.1% |
| Soccer Orbit | Soccer | $500 | 164 | $460.28 | 0.92× | 74.4% | 9.1% |
| Football Ascent | Football | $100 | 3,797 | $99.09 | 0.99× | 75.7% | 12.0% |
| Football Apex | Football | $350 | 552 | $335.22 | 0.96× | 80.8% | 9.4% |
| Football Galaxy | Football | $1,000 | 127 | $1,011.02 | 1.01× | 75.6% | 11.8% |
| Basketball Ascent | Basketball | $100 | 260 | $113.17 | 1.13× | 69.2% | 14.2% |
| Basketball Apex | Basketball | $350 | 154 | $354.35 | 1.01× | 76.6% | 9.7% |
| Baseball Ascent | Baseball | $100 | 717 | $97.23 | 0.97× | 74.5% | 11.1% |
| Baseball Apex | Baseball | $350 | 185 | $357.95 | 1.02× | 78.4% | 9.2% |
| Multisport BookIt Sports Silver | Multisport | $50 | 6,366 | $50.38 | 1.01× | 73.5% | 6.4% |
| Multisport BookIt Sports Gold | Multisport | $250 | 1,058 | $242.36 | 0.97× | 79.1% | 11.9% |
Full value distribution
The shape matters more than the average. Note how much of every pack sits in the bottom two bands.
| Pack | 10x+ | 5–10x | 2–5x | 1–2x | 0.5–1x | Under 0.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisport Liftoff | 0.3% | 2.6% | 7.6% | 16.2% | 28.0% | 45.4% |
| Multisport Ascent | 0.4% | 2.5% | 7.6% | 15.2% | 28.2% | 46.1% |
| Multisport Orbit | 0.2% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 12.8% | 27.9% | 48.7% |
| Multisport Galaxy | 0.5% | 3.1% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 23.7% | 54.0% |
| Multisport Moonshot | 0.7% | 3.2% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 24.0% | 53.4% |
| Pokémon Liftoff | 0.3% | 2.5% | 7.7% | 16.9% | 31.4% | 41.3% |
| Pokémon Ignition | 0.3% | 3.0% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 24.9% | 50.3% |
| Pokémon Ascent | 0.1% | 2.8% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 27.1% | 48.9% |
| Pokémon Orbit | 0.4% | 3.1% | 8.0% | 12.2% | 22.3% | 54.1% |
| One Piece Liftoff | 0.1% | 3.0% | 7.3% | 14.7% | 29.7% | 45.3% |
| One Piece Ignition | 0.1% | 3.5% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 19.6% | 54.8% |
| One Piece Ascent | 0.3% | 2.9% | 7.9% | 14.9% | 26.0% | 48.1% |
| One Piece Orbit | 0.2% | 3.2% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 19.2% | 55.1% |
| Soccer Liftoff | 0.1% | 2.9% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 31.3% | 42.9% |
| Soccer Ascent | 0.2% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 15.7% | 24.4% | 48.9% |
| Soccer Orbit | 0.0% | 1.8% | 7.3% | 16.5% | 27.4% | 47.0% |
| Football Ascent | 0.4% | 3.0% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 21.5% | 54.2% |
| Football Apex | 1.8% | 2.2% | 5.4% | 9.8% | 16.1% | 64.7% |
| Football Galaxy | 0.0% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 17.3% | 58.3% |
| Basketball Ascent | 0.0% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 21.5% | 47.7% |
| Basketball Apex | 0.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 63.0% |
| Baseball Ascent | 0.6% | 2.0% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 23.0% | 51.5% |
| Baseball Apex | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 64.9% |
| Multisport BookIt Sports Silver | 0.0% | 1.4% | 5.0% | 20.2% | 73.5% | 0.0% |
| Multisport BookIt Sports Gold | 1.3% | 2.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 16.5% | 62.6% |
Pack odds: a flat 100-card pool
Alongside the observed results, each pack page lists its card pool with per-tier odds. On the $100 Multisport Ascent pack the pool is 100 cards, each at 1%:
| Tier | Cards | Combined odds |
|---|---|---|
| Epics | 2 | 2.00% |
| Chasers | 6 | 6.00% |
| Hits | 15 | 15.00% |
| Commons | 77 | 77.00% |
This is the cleanest odds structure of any platform we track. Every card is equally likely, the tier percentages are just the card counts, and the pool is enumerated rather than summarised. Compare Arena Club, where you must add up dozens of individual per-card rates to learn your chance at a tier.
The pack page also states a $20 floor and a $1,000 chaser ceiling on Ascent, which puts its guaranteed minimum at 20% of the pack price. That is low by the standards of Courtyard, whose standard packs floor at around 70%, and Packz at 50%, though it is not as low as Crown Rips.
Where the pack page and the transparency page disagree
The Ascent pack page gives an average value of $100 and a chaser ceiling of $1,000. The transparency page gives an average of $106.61 and a maximum of $130,000 for the same pack. Both can be true: the Series Hits, which the pack page says can land in any Launch Series pack at any time, appear to sit outside the enumerated 100-card pool. A buyer reading only the pack page would not know the ceiling is 130 times higher than stated, or that the recorded average is above the stated one.
No buyback terms are disclosed
We could find no sell-back or buyback terms on the pack pages or the transparency page. On every other platform we track, this is where the headline return gets eroded: Courtyard's 90% advertised rate, Packz's 90% in non-withdrawable credit, Arena Club's 90% to a withdrawable wallet. A near-break-even average return means very different things depending on whether you can convert a card to money at 100%, at 90%, or only into more packs.
Until that is answered, Clutch Packs cannot be scored, however good its odds disclosure is.
What we still need
- Buyback terms, the rate and whether proceeds are withdrawable.
- Whether Series Hits sit inside or outside the 100-card pool, and what their odds are. They are the difference between a $1,000 ceiling and a $130,000 one.
- How card values are set at the moment of a pull, and from which market data.
- Whether the on-chain record is independently auditable in practice, not just minted. A record anyone can verify is far stronger than one only the platform can read.
- Shipping terms and fees, which are undisclosed.
Frequently asked
What is the expected value of a Clutch Packs pack?
Across 158,556 verified pulls on 25 packs, the pull-weighted average return is 1.01 times the pack price. That is the only observed, as opposed to claimed, average return we have for any platform, because Clutch Packs records every pack opening on the Polygon blockchain and reports real pull values rather than its own valuations. Individual packs range from 0.92 to 1.13 times, though the packs at the extremes have small samples.
Do most Clutch Packs pulls make money?
No. Weighted across all recorded pulls, 74% return less than the pack price and only 10.5% return double or more. A near-100% average return and a 74% chance of losing money are not contradictory: the average is carried by a thin tail of large pulls, while the typical result is a card worth well under half what the pack cost.
How do Clutch Packs odds work?
Each pack page lists a pool of 100 cards at 1% each, grouped into four tiers. On the $100 Multisport Ascent pack that is 2 Epics at 2% combined, 6 Chasers at 6%, 15 Hits at 15% and 77 Commons at 77%. It is the clearest odds structure of any platform we track, because every card is equally likely and the tier percentages are simply the card counts.
Is the Clutch Packs average inflated by jackpots?
On two packs, yes, and the arithmetic is checkable. A single $130,000 Series Hit appears as the maximum on both the Multisport Ascent and Multisport Moonshot packs. Spread across Ascent's 21,127 recorded pulls that one card adds $6.15 to the average, which is 6.2%% of the $100 pack price, so Ascent's stated 1.07 times becomes about 1.00 times without it. On Moonshot, with only 1,102 pulls, it adds $117.97, or 4.7%% of the price. Every other pack's average sits close to 1.00 times without needing a jackpot to get there.
Does Clutch Packs buy cards back?
Not that it discloses. We found no buyback or sell-back terms on the pack pages or the transparency page, which is the one significant gap in otherwise category-leading disclosure. Since buyback quality is a quarter of our score, and the difference between withdrawable cash and site credit has mattered on every other platform, this needs answering before Clutch Packs can be rated.
Next
- Compare all seven platforms
- Courtyard, the only other platform that publishes a return figure
- How we rate platforms