Pack EV calculator
Enter the odds any ripping site publishes and see what a pack is actually worth: the average card value, the expected loss per pack, and your chance of beating the price. Runs entirely in your browser, no account needed.
| Card value ($) | Odds (%) | Remove |
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Add value tiers to see the maths.
How to use it
Most ripping sites publish odds as dollar ranges rather than exact values, for example a 44% chance of a card worth $12.50 to $17.50. To use a range, enter its midpoint. Bear in mind that real card values tend to cluster toward the bottom of a range, because cheap cards are more numerous than expensive ones, so a midpoint estimate is usually slightly optimistic.
The calculator checks that your odds add up to 100% and will tell you if they do not. If a site's published odds do not total 100%, that is usually display rounding on the smallest tiers rather than an error.
What each number means
- Average card value is the expected value: each tier's value multiplied by its probability, summed. It is what you would average per pack over a very large number of packs.
- Return expresses that as a percentage of the price. Below 100% means the pack loses money on average, which is true of every pack we have measured.
- Average cash back applies the buyback rate. This is the number that matters if you intend to sell cards back rather than keep them. Check whether a platform's buyback pays withdrawable money or site credit, because they are not equivalent.
- Chance of beating the price is how often a single pack produces a card worth more than it cost. It has nothing to do with the average, and two packs with the same expected value can differ enormously here.
What the calculator cannot tell you
It works from the values a platform publishes. If those valuations are higher than what the cards actually sell for, every figure it produces is correspondingly optimistic. Expected value also describes long-run averages, not your next pack: on a pack with a 1-in-1,000 top tier, almost every individual result will look nothing like the average.