Courtyard pack odds and expected value
All 92 Courtyard packs, from the $15 Basic packs to the $10,000 Sports Cosmic Pack, with the expected value Courtyard publishes on each one.
Courtyard publishes an exact expected value on every pack, and on 79 of 92 packs that figure is exactly 95% of the pack price. The $2,500 and $5,000 packs post 96%. The $1,500 U.S. Coins Pack is the lowest at 93.3%.
Collected 2026-09-21 from Courtyard's own pack pages.
What the numbers mean
The average is fixed; the shape is what changes. Nearly every pack returns the same 95%, whether you spend $15 or $10,000. What differs between packs is how that value is distributed. The chance of pulling a card worth at least roughly the pack price runs from 12% to 30% depending on the pack, so two packs with identical expected value can feel completely different to open.
Spicy packs trade the floor for the ceiling. The 5 Spicy packs start their lowest tier at around half the pack price instead of about 70%, and push their top prize far higher in return. If you want the lottery shape, that is where it is; the average return is the same either way.
Selling back costs you more than the posted EV suggests. Courtyard advertises a 90% instant buyback. Applied to a 95% pack that is about 85.5% of your money returned if you sell everything straight back. Independent tracking of recorded Courtyard pulls has measured actual instant offers nearer 85% of card value, which would put the real cash return closer to 80%. The posted expected value is the value of the card, not the cash you can get for it.
What we have not verified
The expected values on this page are Courtyard's own, calculated from Courtyard's own card valuations. We have not yet checked a sample of those valuations against real sold prices. If the valuations run high, the true return is lower than the posted figure. That check is the next thing we are doing, and we will publish it either way.
All 92 Courtyard packs
| Pack | Category | Price | Posted EV | Return | At 90% buyback | Chance of ≥ price | Top prize |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseball Starter Pack | Baseball | $25 | $23.75 | 95% | 85.5% | 19.0% | $399.99 |
| Baseball Pro Pack | Baseball | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 23.2% | $400 |
| Baseball Master Pack | Baseball | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $1,600 |
| Baseball Ultra Pack | Baseball | $250 | $237.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 23.2% | $4,000 |
| Baseball Platinum Pack | Baseball | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.2% | $8,000 |
| Baseball Diamond Pack | Baseball | $1,000 | $950 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.1% | $16,000 |
| Baseball Legend Pack | Baseball | $2,500 | $2,400 | 96% | 86.4% | 23.2% | $40,000 |
| Baseball Mythic Pack | Baseball | $5,000 | $4,800 | 96% | 86.4% | 22.3% | $80,000 |
| Basketball Starter Pack | Basketball | $25 | $23.75 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $299.99 |
| Basketball Pro Pack | Basketball | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.1% | $800 |
| Basketball Master Pack | Basketball | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.1% | $1,600 |
| SLAM Pack | Basketball | $120 | $114 | 95% | 85.5% | 26.4% | $1,400 |
| Basketball Platinum Pack | Basketball | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $8,000 |
| Basketball Diamond Pack | Basketball | $1,000 | $950 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $16,000 |
| Basketball Legend Pack | Basketball | $2,500 | $2,400 | 96% | 86.4% | 21.1% | $40,000 |
| Basketball Mythic Pack | Basketball | $5,000 | $4,800 | 96% | 86.4% | 22.2% | $80,000 |
| $100 Ancient Coins Pack | Coins | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 17.0% | $1,600 |
| $150 U.S. Coins Pack | Coins | $150 | $142.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 23.1% | $2,400 |
| $250 Ancient Coins Pack | Coins | $250 | $237.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 17.1% | $4,000 |
| $500 Shipwreck Coins Pack | Coins | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 26.2% | $7,200 |
| $500 U.S. Coins Pack | Coins | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 16.0% | $8,000 |
| $1500 U.S. Coins Pack | Coins | $1,500 | $1,400 | 93% | 84.0% | 17.1% | $24,000 |
| Modern Age Pack | Comics | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 25.8% | $1,600 |
| Bronze Age Pack | Comics | $200 | $190 | 95% | 85.5% | 26.6% | $3,200 |
| Silver Age Pack | Comics | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 24.2% | $8,000 |
| Comic Diamond Pack | Comics | $1,000 | $950 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.1% | $16,000 |
| Football Starter Pack | Football | $25 | $23.75 | 95% | 85.5% | 24.2% | $400 |
| Football Master Pack | Football | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $1,600 |
| Football Ultra Pack | Football | $250 | $237.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 18.0% | $4,000 |
| Football Platinum Pack | Football | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 23.1% | $8,000 |
| Football Diamond Pack | Football | $1,000 | $950 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.1% | $16,000 |
| Football Legend Pack | Football | $2,500 | $2,400 | 96% | 86.4% | 20.2% | $40,000 |
| Football Mythic Pack | Football | $5,000 | $4,800 | 96% | 86.4% | 20.1% | $80,000 |
| Hockey Starter Pack | Hockey | $25 | $23.75 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $399.99 |
| Hockey Pro Pack | Hockey | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 24.2% | $800 |
| Hockey Master Pack | Hockey | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $1,600 |
| Hockey Ultra Pack | Hockey | $250 | $237.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.1% | $4,000 |
| Hockey Platinum Pack | Hockey | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.2% | $8,000 |
| 30th Anniversary: Red | Limited edition | $19 | $18.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.2% | $608 |
| 30th Anniversary: Blue | Limited edition | $39 | $37.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $624 |
| 30th Anniversary: Crystal | Limited edition | $59 | $56.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.2% | $944 |
| 30th Anniversary: Gold | Limited edition | $79 | $75.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 23.3% | $1,200 |
| 30th Anniversary: Emerald | Limited edition | $99 | $94.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.2% | $1,600 |
| 30th Anniversary: Yellow | Limited edition | $119 | $113.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.2% | $1,900 |
| 30th Anniversary: Silver | Limited edition | $139 | $132.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.2% | $2,200 |
| Sports Just the Hits! (Spicy) | Limited edition | $499 | $474.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 25.5% | $15,900 |
| Sealed Magic: The Gathering Booster ($50) | Magic: The Gathering | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 26.6% | $800 |
| One Piece Pro Pack | One Piece | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.2% | $800 |
| One Piece Master Pack | One Piece | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 18.1% | $1,600 |
| One Piece Ultra Pack | One Piece | $250 | $237.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.0% | $4,000 |
| One Piece Platinum Pack | One Piece | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.1% | $8,000 |
| One Piece Diamond Pack | One Piece | $1,000 | $950 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.2% | $16,000 |
| Pokémon Starter Pack | Pokémon | $25 | $23.75 | 95% | 85.5% | 15.0% | $400 |
| Pokémon Pro Pack | Pokémon | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.1% | $800 |
| Pokémon Master Pack | Pokémon | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.2% | $1,600 |
| Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) | Pokémon | $249 | $236.55 | 95% | 85.5% | 27.8% | $8,000 |
| Pokémon Ultra Pack | Pokémon | $250 | $237.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $4,000 |
| Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) | Pokémon | $499 | $474.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 25.6% | $15,900 |
| Pokémon Platinum Pack | Pokémon | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.1% | $8,000 |
| Pokémon Diamond (Spicy) | Pokémon | $999 | $949.05 | 95% | 85.5% | 26.6% | $31,900 |
| Pokémon Diamond Pack | Pokémon | $1,000 | $950 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $16,000 |
| Pokémon Legend (Spicy) | Pokémon | $2,499 | $2,400 | 96% | 86.4% | 25.5% | $79,900 |
| Pokémon Legend Pack | Pokémon | $2,500 | $2,400 | 96% | 86.4% | 20.1% | $40,000 |
| Pokémon Mythic Pack | Pokémon | $5,000 | $4,800 | 96% | 86.4% | 21.1% | $80,000 |
| Sealed Pokémon Booster ($15) | Sealed boosters | $15 | $14.25 | 95% | 85.5% | 19.3% | $240 |
| Sealed Pokémon Booster ($25) | Sealed boosters | $25 | $23.75 | 95% | 85.5% | 23.0% | $400 |
| Sealed Pokémon Booster ($50) | Sealed boosters | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 19.7% | $800 |
| Sneakers Pack (US Men's 8-8.5) | Sneakers | $275 | $261.25 | 95% | 85.5% | 19.0% | $4,400 |
| Sneakers Pack (US Men's 9-9.5) | Sneakers | $275 | $261.25 | 95% | 85.5% | 19.0% | $4,400 |
| Soccer Starter Pack | Soccer | $25 | $23.75 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $399.99 |
| Soccer Pro Pack | Soccer | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 24.2% | $800 |
| Soccer Master Pack | Soccer | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.2% | $1,600 |
| Soccer Platinum Pack | Soccer | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 23.1% | $8,000 |
| Sports Basic Pack | Sports | $15 | $14.25 | 95% | 85.5% | 16.1% | $240 |
| Sports Starter Pack | Sports | $25 | $23.75 | 95% | 85.5% | 29.7% | $400 |
| Sports Pro Pack | Sports | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 24.2% | $800 |
| Sports Master Pack | Sports | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $1,600 |
| Sports Ultra Pack | Sports | $250 | $237.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.1% | $4,000 |
| Sports Platinum Pack | Sports | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.2% | $8,000 |
| Sports Diamond Pack | Sports | $1,000 | $950 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.1% | $16,000 |
| Sports Legend Pack | Sports | $2,500 | $2,400 | 96% | 86.4% | 21.2% | $40,000 |
| Sports Mythic Pack | Sports | $5,000 | $4,800 | 96% | 86.4% | 22.2% | $80,000 |
| Sports Cosmic Pack | Sports | $10,000 | $9,500 | 95% | 85.5% | 22.1% | $160,000 |
| Classic Watch Box | Watches | $5,000 | $4,800 | 96% | 86.4% | 19.1% | $30,000 |
| Premier Watch Box | Watches | $10,000 | $9,500 | 95% | 85.5% | 12.0% | $100,000 |
| Wildcard Basic Pack | Wildcard | $15 | $14.25 | 95% | 85.5% | 15.0% | $240 |
| Wildcard Starter Pack | Wildcard | $25 | $23.75 | 95% | 85.5% | 17.0% | $400 |
| Wildcard Pro Pack | Wildcard | $50 | $47.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $800 |
| Wildcard Master Pack | Wildcard | $100 | $95 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $1,600 |
| Wildcard Ultra Pack | Wildcard | $250 | $237.50 | 95% | 85.5% | 20.1% | $4,000 |
| Wildcard Platinum Pack | Wildcard | $500 | $475 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.2% | $8,000 |
| Wildcard Diamond Pack | Wildcard | $1,000 | $950 | 95% | 85.5% | 21.1% | $16,000 |
Odds disclosure
Courtyard shows each pack's odds as dollar ranges with a percentage against each, plus a single expected value figure. Most packs' odds sum to between 99.6% and 100.5% rather than exactly 100%, which is consistent with rounding the small tiers for display rather than an error in the underlying numbers. One pack in our collection, the Sealed Pokémon Booster ($50), appears to be missing a tier between $100 and $200 and needs rechecking.
Frequently asked
What is the expected value of a Courtyard pack?
Courtyard publishes an expected value on every pack, and on 79 of its 92 packs that figure is exactly 95% of the pack price. The $2,500 and $5,000 packs post 96%, and the $1,500 U.S. Coins Pack posts the lowest figure at 93.3%. In plain terms, the average card in a Courtyard pack is worth about 95 cents for every dollar spent, using Courtyard's own valuations.
Does Courtyard pay out in cash?
Courtyard advertises an instant buyback at 90%% of a card's value, and the platform settles in USDC, a dollar-pegged stablecoin. Applying that 90%% rate to a 95%% pack gives about 85.5%% of the pack price back if you sell every card straight back. Independent tracking of recorded pulls has measured Courtyard's actual instant offers nearer 85%% of value, which would put the real figure closer to 80%%. We have not yet verified the withdrawal path ourselves.
Which Courtyard pack has the best odds?
Every Courtyard pack returns almost the same average, so the meaningful difference is shape rather than value. The chance of pulling a card worth at least roughly the pack price ranges from 12% to 30% across the 92 packs. The highest posted return is the Pokémon Legend (Spicy) at 96.0%, and the lowest is the $1500 U.S. Coins Pack at 93.3%.
What are Courtyard's Spicy packs?
Spicy packs lower the floor in exchange for a much larger ceiling. They post the same kind of expected value as the standard packs but start their bottom tier at around half the pack price, and their top prize reaches far higher. The Pokémon Legend (Spicy) tops out at $79,900 against $40,000 for the standard Legend pack. Same average, more variance.
Next
- Courtyard vs Packz — how the two disclosures compare.
- Run a Courtyard pack through the calculator.
- Download the full Courtyard odds dataset.